CCL逼近歷史高位 港股走弱與利率風險為後市添變數

05.07.2026


反映本港二手樓價走勢的中原城市領先指數(CCL)持續走高,最新報160.77,按周上升0.52%,已連升五周,累計升幅達2.11%,並創近三年新高。今年上半年樓價累計上升11.56%,為過去八年來最大半年度升幅,顯示在減息預期及市場情緒改善帶動下,住宅價格在短時間內急速反彈。

分細項指數觀察,大型屋苑領先指數及中小型單位指數按周分別上升0.43%及0.50%,均已連升三周,累計升幅超過1.6%,同樣刷新近三年高位。反映豪宅市場的大型單位指數按周上升0.61%,連升四周共3.64%,指數水平升至逾兩年半新高,說明不論剛需或換樓及高端客群,近期入市意慾均較去年明顯提升。

區域表現呈現「三升一跌」局面:港島CCL Mass按周升1.41%,連升三周共3.78%,創近三年新高;新界西上升0.39%,指數攀至逾兩年半高位;新界東則微升0.15%,錄得近三年次高。九龍成為唯一錄得回調的分區,CCL Mass按周輕微下跌0.10%,但仍處於近三年高位附近,反映整體樓價升勢雖有分化,暫未見明顯逆轉訊號。

不過,代理行預期,樓價在急升過後,升幅將會收窄。中證監嚴打走資令港股表現轉弱,削弱部分財富效應,發展商亦因市況轉趨審慎而放慢新盤推售步伐,同一時間,二手業主叫價態度偏強,導致近期成交量明顯減少,價量背馳情況浮現。市場亦不排除美國仍有加息可能,一旦外圍利率環境再度收緊,將進一步壓抑本地購買力。業界預測,CCL第三季有機會上試約165點水平,但在多重不確定因素夾擊下,香港樓市在高位的上升空間與持續性,正面臨新一輪考驗。


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